Gary Ablett will have to seriously rewrite AFL history if he is to defy a season-ending shoulder injury to collect a third Brownlow Medal in what shapes as a fascinating vote count in Melbourne on Monday night.

Since the introduction of the 3-2-1 voting system in 1931 no player has won the coveted medal having missed more than four games.

Ablett this year missed seven. And given the 2009 and 2013 winner blew out his shoulder just after half-time in the round 16 clash with Collingwood at Metricon Stadium to win he will effectively have to poll enough votes in 14 games to beat the rest of the competition in 22.

It would be an extraordinary effort if he was to become the fifth three-time winner of the game’s highest individual honor, joining an elite group that includes Fitzroy’s Haydn Bunton (1931-32-34), Essedon’s Dick Reynolds (1934-37-38), South Melbourne’s Bob Skilton (1959-63-68) and St.Kilda/Richmond’s Ian Stewart (1965-66-71).

The only two players to have won the medal in a season in which they missed four games were Bunton in 1932 and Stewart in 1965. Ablett won in 2009 when he missed three games, as did Carlton’s Chris Judd in 2010, Footscray’s Tony Liberatore in 1990, St.Kilda’s Brian Gleeson in 1957, and Skilton in 1968.

Calculating how many votes the Gold Coast SUNS skipper might need to win is impossible, but to use history as a guide, since 2000 the winner has averaged 26.8 votes. More significantly, the runner-up in the same period has averaged 23 votes.

From 2000-2009 the runner-up polled 23 votes or less, but, in a worrying trend for Ablett, that has changed in the last four years.

Last year Selwood finished second with 27 votes after Hawthorn’s Sam Mitchell did likewise with 26 votes in 2012. St.Kilda’s Nick Dal Santo was runner-up with 28 votes in 2011 and Ablett was second with 26 votes playing with Geelong in 2010.

Ablett polled 28 votes to win last year and 30 votes to win in 2009.

Supporters of the little master will point to the fact that the SUNS won eight of the 14 games he completed, when he averaged 34 possessions and 1.8 goals.

He had 30-plus possessions in six of the eight wins against Richmond (round 1), Brisbane (round 3), Melbourne (round 5), GWS Giants (round 6), St.Kilda (round 9) and Geelong (round 14).

He had 35, 37, 33 and 45 possessions in four losses to Hawthorn (round 4), Sydney (round 12), West Coast (round 13) and Hawthorn (round 15).

Another significant factor in Ablett’s favour is that, although other Gold Coast players are likely to poll more prominently this year than in past years, the captain will still dominate the club vote.

Leading contenders at other clubs are expected to share votes with teammates. At Geelong Johnson is a proven vote-winner and could take votes from Selwood. Josh Kennedy and Lance Franklin might split the Sydney vote. Scott Pendlebury and Dayne Beams likewise at Collingwood, Robbie Gray and Travis Boak at Port Adelaide, Dyson Heppell and Jobe Watson (until injured) at Essendon, and Jordan Lewis and Jarryd Roughead at Hawthorn.

Ablett has topped the SUNS’ vote-count each year with 23-24-28 votes in the club totals of 38-43-62. He has a staggering 52.4% of Gold Coast votes, overall.

Nathan Bock and Jared Brennan polled three votes to be next best of the Suns in 2011, while Harley Bennell polled six votes and Tom Lynch and Brandon Matera three apiece in 2012. Dion Prestia polled nine votes and Bennell seven votes in 2013.

The SUNS’ aggregate Brownlow Medal leaderboard, which comprises 21 players, is: Ablett (75), Bennell (13), Prestia (9), Matera (5), Brennan (4), Charlie Dixon (4), Jaeger O’Meara (4), Zac Smith (4), David Swallow (4), Bock (3), Jarrod Harbrow (3), Lynch (3), Michael Rischitelli (2), Luke Russell (2), Rory Thompson (2), Campbell Brown (1), Aaron Hall (1), Sam Iles (1), Steven May (1), Tom Nicholls (1), Matt Shaw (1).

This year Swallow, Lynch and Prestia, who finished 1st-2nd-3rd in the Club Champion vote-count, are each expected to be among the medal votes. Likewise Steven May. The SUNS' coaching brains-trust rated Lynch their best player five times – equal with Ablett. Swallow topped the B&F voting in four games, while Prestia and May did so twice.

2014 Gold Coast SUNS Brownlow Medal Form Guide