This is a classic ‘good news, bad news’ situation.  The good news? Sitting 8^th on the ladder with a 9-5 win-loss record and a percentage of 120.3, the SUNS have never been in a better position at Round 16. The bad news? It’s going to take three and possibly four more wins than ever before to play finals.

Such is the split nature of the AFL ladder and the titanic nine-team struggle for eight finals spots ahead of Saturday afternoon’s clash with Essendon at Marvel Stadium, the cut-off mark could be as high as 15 wins.

So, as much as the SUNS are one win and 14.3% ahead of their previous best Round 16 standing of last year, it could require a 6-3 split in the run home for the club to play finals for the first time.

It’s a run in which the SUNS will play Essendon (away), Collingwood (home), Adelaide (away), Brisbane (home), Richmond (home), Carlton (away), GWS (home), Essendon (home) and Port Adelaide (away).

A 15-win cut-off would be two wins higher than the 13-10 record saw Carlton grab eighth place on percentage from Collingwood last year, and two and a half wins up on the 12 and half wins which saw Sydney finish eighth spot after the League’s first 23-game season in 2023.

How’s that happened? It’s because the bottom nine teams have registered only 10 wins and a draw against the top nine sides. 

This is in stark contrast to last year, when the bottom nine had 30 wins and three draws against the top nine – despite the fact that West Coast, North and Richmond, who finished 16^th, 17^th and 18th, had only one win against the top nine between them.

In the run home, Gold Coast, with a game in hand, will play four games against top nine sides. Geelong will play only one game against a finals contender, GWS will play three contenders, Adelaide, Hawthorn, Fremantle and the Western Bulldogs four, and Collingwood and Brisbane five.

That means only 17 games in the last eight rounds between top nine sides, and will make losses by contenders to non-contenders potentially fatal.

It will all come down to Round 24 when, in a fixture like never before, the SUNS will play twice in a fixture still to be confirmed.

But the message from coach Damien Hardwick this week will be clear … don’t worry about the ‘ifs, buts and maybes’ of the next eight weeks, and just worry about Saturday.

The SUNS will face a Bombers side coming off a bye after a four-game losing streak. They sit 13^th on the ladder, three wins and percentage outside the eight, having not beaten a side in the top bracket.

Hardwick will need only to point to the head-to-head record between the clubs to ensure his players are on the job. It’s 4-1-11 in 16 meetings and that’s after two narrow wins last year, when the Bombers finished two spots on the ladder and half a game ahead of the SUNS.

At Marvel Stadium it’s 1-6 – and only after Mac Andrew’s thrilling after-the-siren goal in a four-goal best afield stunner to snatch a one-point breakthrough win in Round 22 last year.

The Bombers, who have debuted 11 different players this year, will welcome the return of Sam Durham from a two-match suspension. Averaging 22.4 possessions per game, he’ll join a prolific ball-winning department that includes captain Zach Merrett (27.4ppg) and Nic Martin (25.9ppg), who sit 19^th and 23^rd respectively in voting for the AFL Coach’s Association Player of the Year Award.

Jordan Ridley is are also likely to return after the club lost three key players to injury at training last Saturday – Mason Redman, Darcy Parish and Kyle Langford.

Ex-SUN Peter Wright (19 goals) and highly-rated youngster Nate Caddy (15 goals) head the Essendon forward line, while teenager Archie Roberts, averaging 23.6ppg in his second season, has been trumpeted by the Bombers as a Rising Star contender.

Historically, Gary Ablett (6), Tom Lynch (5) and Aaron Hall (4) head the Gold Coast Brownlow vote-count against Essendon with 100-gamer Matt Rowell (4).

Ablett’s 40 possessions in the first meeting between the clubs at People First Stadium in 2012 is still the club record against the Bombers, while Andrew, Ben Long, Ben King and Tom Lynch (twice) share the goals record against Essendon.

Captain Noah Anderson will go into Saturday afternoon’s game needing just four possessions to become the fifth player to have 3000 possessions for the club. He’ll hit this mark in his 119^th game – slower than Ablett (99 games) but quicker than Touk Miller (136), David Swallow (142) and Jarrod Harbrow (151).