If there has been a lightbulb moment in the brief AFL career of Jed Walter it came in Round 4 last year when the SUNS beat the Adelaide Crows by a point at People First Stadium.

It was the powerhouse key forward’s 16th game. Still only 19 years old, he kicked three goals and took two contested marks and three marks inside the forward 50m arc, all for the first time in his career.

They are not exactly mind-blowing numbers, but they were confirmation that the Perth-born youngster, who had moved to the Gold Coast aged nine and graduated from Palm Beach Currumbin High School and the StreetSmarts SUNS Academy, was on the way.

And it’s why this week the SUNS were delighted to lock in the services of the now 21-year-old, 195cm powerhouse through to the end of 2029 in the face of lucrative interstate offers.

And why they have such high hopes for a young man who, despite his West Australian heritage, had not played football until he joined the Under-9s at the Palm Beach-Currumbin Lions.

He has endured a tough introduction to the AFL, used in arguably the toughest role in the game and playing second fiddle to full forward Ben King, the SUNS’ all-time leading goal-kicker.

But an analysis of his career in 10-game blocks shows just how far he has come.

In his first 10 games he had 59 possessions and took 16 marks, including six contested marks and nine marks inside 50. He kicked nine goals, had two goal assists and 33 score involvements, and an average game rating of 2.98.

In his next 10 games he had 68 possessions and 23 marks, including five contested marks and 10 marks inside 50. He kicked 12 goals, had no goal assists and 30 score involvements, and an average game rating of 4.16. Up a little.

In games 21 to 30 he had 67 possessions and 25 marks, including 10 contested marks and eight marks inside 50. He kicked eight goals, had two goal assists and 26 score involvements, with an average game rating of 3.00. Largely unchanged.

But in games 31 to 40 he had 85 possessions and took 36 marks, including 16 contested marks and 10 marks inside 50. He kicked 19 goals, had five goal assists and 52 score involvements, with an average game rating of 6.3. A big jump, especially in output.

Most impressively, his goal count, goal assists, score involvements and game rating doubled, or better.

The upward trend has continued in his last two games, highlighted by an equal career-high three goals and a rating of 13.0, the second-highest of his career, in the loss to Adelaide last weekend.

Having joined the SUNS at pick No.4 in the 2023 National Draft after the club matched a bid from North Melbourne, Walter sits fifth on the goal list among 106 first-time draftees in his year.

His 52 goals in 42 games is headed only by Logan Morris’ 120 goals in 61 games for Brisbane, Nick Watson’s 100 goals in 58 games for Hawthorn, Shaun Mannagh’s 71 goals in 52 games for Geelong, and Nate Caddy’s 60 goals in 43 games for Essendon.

On a goals-per-game basis, it’s Morris (1.97) ahead of small forward Watson (1.72), Caddy (1.40), utility Mannagh (1.36) and Walter (1.23).

Morris was pick No.31, Watson was No.5, Mannagh was a mature-age choice at No.38, and Caddy was pick No.10.

Walter ranks equal 21st across the competition this year for goals per game at 1.92, and among 38 players averaging 1.50 goals per game or better only Caddy is younger. And he’s only 35 days younger.

Certainly, Walter’s numbers compare favourably to those of similar players in SUNS history.

Charlie Dixon and Tom Lynch, the two big forwards in the club’s early years, each kicked 40 goals in their first 42 games. Dixon was a Queensland zone player, and Lynch was pick No.11 in 2010.

Peter Wright, pick No.8 in the 2014 draft, had 49 goals and King, pick No.6 in 2018, had 74.