If you listen to the southern media Noah Anderson and Matt Rowell will just be making up the numbers in the Brownlow Medal this year. They’ll finish top 10, they say. Maybe even top five.

But if you listen to the collective view of those who are meant to know best – the coaches -Anderson will top the count on Monday night. And Rowell will finish fifth.

And it will all come down to the last game of the home-and-away season, played 172 days after it was originally scheduled and an annoying asterisk on the entire year.

How so?

If you convert the weekly 5-4-3-2-1 votes in the Coaches Association Player of the Year Award into notional 3-2-1 Brownlow votes Anderson will clinch the medal in the last game of the year against Essendon at People First Stadium.

According to votes in the notional ‘Coachlow’, 11 players will still be in it with two rounds to play, with Anderson (24) leading from Adelaide’s Jordan Dawson (23.5), Rowell (22), Collingwood’s Nick Daicos (21.33), Geelong’s Bailey Smith (20.33), Port Adelaide’s Zak Butters (20), Fremantle’s Caleb Serong (19.33), Sydney’s Brodie Grundy, St.Kilda’s Nathan Wanganeen-Milera, Geelong’s Max Holmes (19) and Western Bulldogs’ Ed Richards (18).

In Round 23 only Smith (1.5), Daicos (1), Wanganeen-Milera (1) and Richards (2) improve.

So four players can ‘win’ going into the last round, in which the SUNS play twice. It is Anderson (24) from Dawson (23.5), Rowell (22) and Nick Daicos (21.33), with Smith (20.33) just out of striking distance.

Dawson doesn’t poll with the coaches in Adelaide’s last game against North Melbourne,

Nick Daicos, who polled three coaches votes behind Melbourne’s Max Gawn (10) and Collingwood’s Jordan deGoey, picks up 0.5 in the ‘Coachlow’ with teammate Scott Pendlebury.

Anderson and Rowell both miss the votes against Port Adelaide in Adelaide, which means it all comes down to the catch-up game against Essendon, when the SUNS won by 95 points. Anderson had 34 possessions, three goals and 12 clearances, Rowell 31 possessions, two goals and eight tackles and Ben King kicked seven goals.

The coaches voted Anderson (9), King (8) and Rowell (7), which equates to Anderson (3), King (2) and Rowell (1) in the ‘Coachlow’.  So Anderson wins.

It’s a formula that in the last four years has produced the winner twice, the runner-up once, and the player who finished third once, so it’s a reasonable guide.

The Final Leaderboard in the ‘Coachlow’ is:-

27 – Noah Anderson (GC)
24.33 – Bailey Smith (Geel)
23.5 – Jordan Dawson (Adel)
23 – Matt Rowell (GC), Zac Butters (Port)
22.83 – Nick Daicos (Coll)
22.5 – Marcus Bontempelli (WB)
20.5 – Max Gawn (Melb)
20.33 – Caleb Serong (Frem)
20 – Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera (StK), Ed Richards (WB)

Behind this group are Brisbane’s Hugh McCluggage (19.5), GWS’ Finn Callaghan (19). Geelong’s Max Holmes (19), Sydney’s Brodie Grundy (19), North’s Tristan Xerri (18.75), GWS’ Toby Greene (15.83), Adelaide’s Riley Thilthorpe (15.5), Brisbane’s Lachie Neale (14), Port’s Connor Rozee (14) and Sydney’s Isaac Heeney (14).

Anderson and Rowell poll 50 of the SUNS 84 votes in the ‘Coachlow’.

Touk Miller (8.5) is the third-ranked Sun from Jarrod Witts (5.5), Bailey Humphrey (4), John Noble (3.33), Joel Jeffrey (3), King (3), Daniel Rioli (3), Mac Andrew (1.33), Bodhi Uwland (1), Ben Long (1) and Sam Collins (0.33).

How do we convert the coaches votes to ‘coachlow’ votes? The three leading vote-getters with the coaches get six ‘coachlow’ votes – 3-2-1. Of if they are ties in the coaches votes the six ‘coachlow’ votes are split. If the coaches vote 10-8-6 it’s 3-2-1. If they vote 9-7-7 it’s 3-1.5-1.5. And if they vote 7-7-7 it’s 2-2-2.

Follow the Brownlow Medal vote-count via the ‘Coachlow’ votes here:-

Round 1 – Gold Coast 20-16 (136) d West Coast 7-7 (49) at Perth Stadium

The SUNS posted the biggest win in club history, led by the midfield dominance of Noah Anderson (36 possessions, nine clearances), Matt Rowell (30 possessions, eight tackles, 10 clearances), Touk Miller (26 possessions, two goals, 10 clearances) and Jarrod Witts (13 possessions, 68 hit-outs), a strong club debut from Daniel Riol (21 possessions, two goals), and power up forward of Ben King (six goals) and Ben Long (four goals). Witts’ hit-out count was one short of the club record 69 he had against GWS in 2019.

Coachlow Votes: Jarrod Witts (3), Noah Anderson (2), Matt Rowell (1)

Round 3 – Gold Coast 18-12 (120) d Melbourne 8-14 (62) at MCG

The SUNS had their biggest win at ‘headquarters’ since 2013 as Matt Rowell (36 possessions, seven tackles and 13 clearances), Noah Anderson (35 possessions, one goal) and Touk Miller (23 possessions, three goals) led the way with Ben King (four goals)

Coachlow Votes: Matt Rowell (GC) 3, Noah Anderson (GC) 2, Jarrod Witts (GC) 1.

Round 4 – Gold Coast 13-13 (91) d Adelaide 14-6 (90) at People First Stadium

A Will Graham goal midway through the final quarter eventually gave the SUNS a win over eventual minor premiers. They won by a point after trailing at halftime by a point. Riley Thilthorpe (five goals) and Taylor Walker (four goals) were strong for the visitors, as Sam Flanders (26 possessions) and Daniel Rouli (26 possess) topped the SUNS stats sheet with Jed Walter (three goals), and Bodhi Uwland staked a claim for his first Brownlow votes was a standout in defence.

Coachlow Votes: Riley Thilthorpe (A) 3, Daniel Rioli (GC) 2, Bodhi Uwland (1).

Round 5 – Gold Coast 21-15 (141) d North Melbourne 13-11 (89) at Barossa Park

The SUNS ventured to the Barossa for Gather Round #2 and a 52-point win over North Melbourne. John Noble (28 possessions and a goal) topped the stats sheet with Noah Anderson (27 possessions), Touk Miller (27 possessions, one goal) and Matt Rowell (26 possessions, one goal, 11 clearances). Ben King (five goals) and Ben Long (15 possessions, three goals and three goal assists) did the job up forward.

Coachlow Votes:  Noah Anderson (GC) 3, Matt Rowell (GC) 2, Ben Long (GC) 1.

Round 6 – Richmond 12-8 (80) d Gold Coast 9-15 (69) at Marvel Stadium

Damien Hardwick’s former club spoiled the milestone celebrations of Ben King (100 AFL games) and Lachie Weller (100 SUNS games), posting an 11-point win despite a barnstorming final term in which the SUNS kicked 5-4 to 0-2 to a more than double their score and cut the margin to 11 points.

Coachlow Votes: Nick Vlaustin (R) 3, Tim Taranto (R) 2, Noah Balta (R) 1.

Round 7 – Gold Coast 17-15 (117) d Sydney 12-7 (79) at People First Stadium

The SUNS came from 17 points down at halftime to win by 38 points, kicking 11-9 to 3-2 in the second half. Bailey Humphrey had 18 possessions and kicked four goals in a performance which should deliver his first Brownlow Medal votes, while John Noble (30 possessions), Ben King (five goals), Touk Miller (24 possessions) and Daniel Rioli (21 possessions, two goals) were other standouts.

Coachlow Votes: Bailey Humphrey (GC) 3, Touk Miller (GC) 2, Daniel Rioli (GC) 1.

Round 8 – Brisbane 9-12 (66) d Gold Coast 7-7 (49) at Gabba

Q-Clash #28 saw Brisbane kick the first four goals, before Gold Coast kicked 6-6 to 5-7 from seven minutes into the second term. Noah Anderson (27 possessions) was the only SUNS player to figure in the coaches votes – he polled one vote.

Coachlow Votes: Will Ashcroft (B) 3, Josh Dunkley (B) 2, Lachie Neale (B) 1.

Round 9 – Gold Coast 15-16 (106) d Western Bulldogs 14-12 (96) in Darwin

Gold Coast hung on to win by 10 points after the Dogs had kicked four quick goals in the final term to cut the SUNS’ advantage from 28 points to three points, with a Ben King major securing the ‘W’. Noah Anderson (28 possessions), Touk Miller (25 possessions), Bailey Humphrey (24 possessions) and Darwin local Daniel Rioli (24 possessions, one goal) led the way. The Dogs dominated the coaches votes 19-11 despite the result.

Coachlow Votes: Tom Liberatore (WB) 3, Ed Richards (WB) 2, Touk Miller (GC) 1.

Round 10 – Gold Coast 16-8 (104) d 15-6 (96) in Darwin

The SUNS celebrated Touk Miller’s 200^th game with the second win of their Darwin visit, making it 8-0 over four years as they beat Hawthorn by eight points in a see-sawing affair. It was also Jarrod Witts’ 150^th game for the SUNS. The SUNS led by 20 points at the first change and 14 points at halftime, but were three points down at three-quarter time. In a hot finish late goals to Touk Miller and Ben Long got them home. John Noble (36 possessions), Noah Anderson (35 possessions, one goal) and Matt Rowell (29 possessions) were standouts with Ben King (four goals).

Coachlow Votes: Noah Anderson (GC) 3, John Noble (GC) 2, Matt Rowell (GC) 1.

Round 11 – Gold Coast 12-8 (90) d St.Kilda 8-13 (61) at Marvel Stadium

Noah Anderson (36 possessions, 11 clearances), Touk Miller (30 possessions) and Matt Rowell (24 possessions, 15 tackles) led the stats sheet in an all-the-way win over St.Kilda, with Jarrod Witts (12 possessions, 49 hit-outs, six tackles and six clearances).

Coachlow Votes: Noah Anderson (GC) 3, Touk Miller (GC) 1.5, Jarrod Witts (GC) 1.5.

Round 12 – Fremantle 11-9 (75) d Gold Coast 9-10 (64) at People First Stadium

Leo Lombard debuted for the SUNS at home in an 11-point loss to Fremantle made to look closer than it was by two late goals from Sam Flanders. Noah Anderson (39 possessions, 12 clearances) was a standout for the home side.

Coachlow Votes: Jordan Clark (F) 3, Noah Anderson (GC) 2, Shai Bolton (F) 0.5, Luke Jackson (F) 0.5.

Round 13 – Geelong 9-7 (61) d Gold Coast 5-7 (37) at Kardinia Park

The SUNS lost by four goals in a tough slog at Geelong despite 25 possessions apiece from Brayden Fiorini and Joel Jeffrey, and 64 hit-outs from Jarrod Witts.

Coachlow Votes: Max Holmes (G) 3, Tyson Stengle (G) 2, Mac Andrew (GC) 1.

Round 15 – GWS 16-10 (96) d Gold Coast 14-15 (99) at Sydney Showgrounds

After a week off the SUNS fell to their third loss in a row in Sydney, going down by seven points after leading by 22 points at three-quarter, conceding 8-1 to 3-2 in the final term. The SUNS dominated the team possession count 398-342, thanks primarily to Noah Anderson’s season-high 42 possessions on top of two goals. Touk Miller (37 possessions, two goals) and Matt Rowell (34 possessions, 12 clearances), Bailey Humphrey (23 possessions, two goals)  and Jarrod Witts (20 possessions, 54 hit-outs, seven tackles and six clearances were other standouts.

Coachlow Votes: Noah Anderson (GC) 3, Tom Green (GWS) 2, Bailey Humphrey (GC) 1.

 

Round 16 – Gold Coast 15-14 (104) d Melbourne 12-13 (85) at People First Stadium

Happy to be back at home, the SUNS led 5-7 to 0-1 at quarter-time, and after leading by 46 points at three-quarter time finished 19 points clear. John Noble (29 possessions), Sam Flanders (28 possessions) and Noah Anderson (27 possessions) as Jake Melksham kicked 5-6 for the Demons.

Coachlow Votes: Jake Melksham (M) 2.5, Matt Rowell (GC) 2.5, John Noble (GC) 1.

Round 17 – Gold Coast 18-7 (115) d Essendon 11-8 (74) at Marvel Stadium

Matt Rowell played his 100^th AFL game and Oscar Adams his first as the SUNS led by less than a goal at each change before piling on 6-3 to 0-1 in the final term. Joel Jeffrey had an equal career-best 32 possessions and a goal, and Noah Anderson enjoyed 30 possessions and two goals. The coaches votes were spread, with five players getting five votes or more.

Coachlow Votes: Joel Jeffrey (GC) 3, Zach Merrett (E) 2, Touk Miller (GC) 1.

Round 18 – Gold Coast  10-9 (69) d Collingwood 8-15 (63) at People First Stadium

At the time it was the biggest game in SUNS history as a sellout crowd of 22,381 packed People First Stadium for what turned out to be one of the SUNS’ great wins. The home side led 6-7 to 0-8 at halftime and by 40 points eight minutes into the third quarter before the Magpies kicked eight of the next nine goals to hit the front. Ben Long kicked the steadier and, still 15 minutes from the final siren, Noah Anderson snapped what proved to be the clincher. Anderson had 32 possessions and a goal but was upstaged by Matt Rowell’s phenomenal triple double – 32 possessions, two goals, 13 tackles and 12 clearances.

Coachlow Votes: Matt Rowell, Josh Daicos (C) 2, Noah Anderson (GC) 1.

Round 19 – Adelaide 16-11 (107) d Gold Coast 6-10 (46) at Adelaide Oval

One to forget in Ben Ainsworth’s 150th, as Matt Rowell (30 possessions, nine tackles and 12 clearances) was the only Sun to figure in the coaches votes. He polled six.

Coachlow Votes: Alex Neal-Bullen (A) 3, Matt Rowell (GC) 1.5, Daniel Curtin (A) 1.5.

Round 20 - Gold Coast 20-10 (130) d Brisbane 9-10 (54) at People First Stadium

The SUNS bounced back from the lowest point of the season to record their biggest win over arch-rivals Brisbane in Q-Clash #29 at home. They won every quarter and made a 30-0 sweep of the coaches votes. Six players had 30-plus possessions – Matt Rowell (37), Noah Anderson (33), Brayden Fiorini (32), Joell Jeffrey (32), John Noble (31) and Alex Davies (30 possessions and 10 tackles) as Ben Long kicked four goals and Jarrod Witts (48 hit-outs) dominated the ruck.

Coachlow Votes: Matt Rowell (GC) 3, Noah Anderson (2), Jarrod Witts (GC) 1.,

Round 21 - Gold Coast 16-11 (107) d Richmond 2-11 (23) at People First Stadium

The SUNS atoned for an early season loss to Richmond with an 84-point thumping at home, holding the Tigers to 23 points – the lowest ever recorded against the Gold Coast. Noah Anderson (38 possessions), John Noble (30 possessions) and Matt Rowell (27 possessions, nine tackles, 12 clearances) led the way.

Coachlow Votes: Noah Anderson (GC) 3, Matt Rowell (GC) 2, Mac Andrew (GC) 0.33, Sam Collins (GC) 0.33, John Noble (GC) 0.33.

Round 22 – Gold Coast 13-15 (93) d Carlton 11-8 (74) at Marvel Stadium

The great warrior, Jarrod Witts, played his 200^th AFL game and Damien Hardwick coached his 350^th as the SUNS’ last trip to Melbourne for the season delivered a 19-point  win over Carlton. The lead got out to 40 points before a ‘snooze’ in which the SUNS conceded five goals in a row to the Blues. Matt Rowell (30 possessions, eight tackles, nine clearances) was a standout with Touk Miller (25 possessions, seven tackles), Ben King (six goals) and Witts, who had 15 possessions, a goal and 49 hit-outs.

Coachlow Votes: Matt Rowell (GC) 3, Touk Miller (GC) 2, Ben King (GC) 1.

Round 23 – GWS 17-9 (111) d Gold Coast 11-10 (76) at People First Stadium

Another one to forget as the Giants received 26 of 30 coaches votes. Noah Anderson (32) possessions was a SUNS standout.

Coachlow Votes: Finn Callaghan (GWS) 3, Tom Green (GWS) 2, Sam Taylor (GWS) 1.

Round 24 (1) – Port Adelaide 10-11 (71) d Gold Coast 9-13 (67)

The SUNS travelled to Adelaide as Port Power fans bid an emotion-charged farewell to coach Ken Hinkley and games record-holder Travis Boak. It was a game even Hinkley said they had ‘no chance’ of winning, but win they did despite 27 possessions apiece for Brayden Fiorini and John Noble in Lachy Gulbin’s debut.

Coachlow Votes: Zak Butters (Port) 3, Connor Rozee (Port) 2, Mitch Georgiades (Port) 1.

Round 24 (2) – Gold Coast 23-15 (153) d Essendon 8-10 (58) at People First Stadium

The Suns clinched an historic first finals berth with a club record 95-point win over a depleted Essendon at People First Stadium. Noah Anderson (34 possessions, three goals and 12 clearances) and Matt Rowell (31 possessions, two goals and eight tackles) were standouts with John Noble (32 possessions), and Ben King, who kicked a club record seven goals.

Coachlow Votes: Noah Anderson (GC) 3, Ben King (GC) 2, Matt Rowell (GC) 1.