History says “12” is the magic number as the AFL competition heads towards a 10-team finals series for the first time in history.

Why? Because in the three seasons in which the competition has played 23 home-and-away games, 12 wins would have guaranteed a top 10 finish.

Last year Sydney were 10th with 12 wins, three games ahead of Port Adelaide, Carlton and St Kilda.

In 2024 Collingwood were 10th with 12 wins and a draw, one game ahead of Essendon, and a game-and-a-half ahead of Gold Coast, Melbourne and St Kilda.

And in 2023 Adelaide would have grabbed 10th spot on percentage from Essendon after both finished with 11 wins, half a game ahead of Geelong and Richmond, and a game ahead of Fremantle.

So, this limited historical sample says 11 wins might be enough to secure at least a wildcard spot this year.

With eight rounds still to play, history also says there will be at least one change to the top 10 from Round 17 to Round 24.

The comparison last year was distorted by the fact that the SUNS’ Opening Round clash with Essendon wasn’t played until after Round 24, so for calculation purposes we’ll consider it as if it was played at the start of the season.

On that basis, Port Adelaide, 10th at Round 17, would have missed the top 10, and Sydney, 11th at Round 17, would have grabbed 10th spot, three wins ahead of Port Adelaide, Carlton and St Kilda.

In 2024, when five teams were deadlocked from 9th to 13th on eight wins at Round 17, the change would have seen Hawthorn jump from 13th to 8th in the last eight rounds after going 5-3.

And in 2023 there would have been two big changes. Geelong and Adelaide, 8th and 10th respectively at Round 17, would have made way for Sydney, who stormed home 6-2 to jump from 15th to 8th, and Carlton, who went on a 7-1 run to climb from 11th to 5th.

The cut-off mark for a top-six finish was 13 wins and percentage in 2023, 14 wins and percentage in 2024, and 16 wins last year.

Certainly, Saturday afternoon’s sell-out clash with 10th-placed Collingwood at People First Stadium is a crucial match for the SUNS. It’s one of those classic “eight-point games”, where they can add four points to their own total and deny a key rival four points.

The SUNS run home is: Collingwood (People First Stadium), Adelaide (Adelaide Oval), Western Bulldogs (People First Stadium), Carlton (Marvel Stadium), Melbourne (People First Stadium), GWS (Manuka Oval), Brisbane (Gabba), St Kilda (Marvel Stadium).

So they play teams that currently sit 10th, 6th, 8th, 12th, 7th, 14th, 5th and 13th on the ladder.

There are two major variables in assessing the run home of each side: interstate travel and games against the top six.

Gold Coast have the heaviest travel load with two trips to Marvel Stadium and one each to Adelaide Oval and Canberra, plus a QClash against Brisbane at the Gabba. Carlton and St Kilda have the lightest travel load – they don’t leave Victoria. Melbourne, Western Bulldogs, North Melbourne, Collingwood and GWS have three interstate trips, with GWS also facing two ‘home’ games in Canberra.

GWS and Collingwood have four games against top-six sides, Melbourne, North Melbourne and Carlton three, Gold Coast, Western Bulldogs and St Kilda two.

Details are:

Melbourne (7th) – Hawthorn (UTAS), Richmond (MCG), North Melbourne (Marvel Stadium), Geelong (MCG), Gold Coast (People First Stadium), Fremantle (MCG), Port Adelaide (Adelaide Oval), Western Bulldogs (MCG).

Western Bulldogs (8th) – Sydney (SCG), West Coast (Marvel Stadium), Gold Coast (People First Stadium), Richmond (Marvel Stadium), Fremantle (Optus Stadium), North Melbourne (Marvel Stadium), Carlton (Marvel Stadium), Melbourne (MCG).

North Melbourne (9th) – Port Adelaide (Adelaide Oval), Collingwood (Marvel Stadium), Melbourne (Marvel Stadium), St Kilda (Marvel Stadium), Hawthorn (UTAS), Western Bulldogs (Marvel Stadium), Geelong (Marvel Stadium), Sydney (SCG).

Collingwood (10th) – Gold Coast (People First Stadium), North Melbourne (Marvel Stadium), Carlton (MCG), Adelaide (Adelaide Oval), Geelong (MCG), West Coast (Optus Stadium), Hawthorn (MCG), Brisbane (MCG).

Carlton (12th) – Richmond (MCG), Hawthorn (MCG), Collingwood (MCG), Gold Coast (Marvel Stadium), Brisbane (Marvel Stadium), St Kilda (Marvel Stadium), Western Bulldogs (Marvel Stadium), Fremantle (Marvel Stadium).

St Kilda (13th) – Essendon (Marvel Stadium), Port Adelaide (Marvel Stadium), Geelong (GMHBA Stadium), North Melbourne (Marvel Stadium), Sydney (Marvel Stadium), Carlton (Marvel Stadium), Richmond (MCG), Gold Coast (Marvel Stadium).

GWS (14th) – Fremantle (Canberra), Geelong (Engie Stadium), Essendon (Marvel Stadium), Sydney (Engie Stadium), Port Adelaide (Adelaide Oval), Gold Coast (Manuka Oval), West Coast (Engie Stadium), Adelaide (Adelaide Oval).